China regards the initial round of US tariffs as a unilateral violation of global trading rules and has lodged a complaint with the WTO.
How do you see this course of action playing out?
WTO complaints take years to resolve and often there is no enforcement mechanism. Compliance is voluntary. China itself as delayed implementation of WTO decisions in the past. If the WTO rules against USA, it is unlikely to Change USA behavior under the Trump Administration.
The USA may also make arguments to the WTO that the tariffs were necessary retaliation for China’s well documented unfair trade and investment practices. It may be possible that the WTO sides with the USA.
Even assuming the subject matter of the complaints by the US against China were within the scope of the WTO agreements, at this stage using the WTO dispute resolution as the mechanism to resolve those complaints raises additional questions. The WTO dispute settlement process is not designed to move expeditiously. From initiation to adoption of conforming measures, a dispute can readily be extended for 3.5 years without any meaningful adverse consequence to the losing party. The present US administration appears to have a short-term political outlook. A 3.5-year time horizon for what may be a modest outcome does not appear consistent with that outlook. Moreover, given the long-standing nature of the US complaints regarding China’s practices, that perspective may not be entirely unreasonable in the circumstances. And, since WTO rules as drafted are unlikely to provide solutions to a number of the issues, the potential efficacy of WTO dispute settlement is questionable.