The latest announcement by the US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo that the administration’s new Iran strategy listed 12 demands.
Is this new US strategy feasible for Iran? Equally, Iran has demanded 3 conditions from Europe; will they agree?
He said Iran must “stop enrichment” of uranium, which was allowed within strict limitations under the 2015 deal. Iran must also allow nuclear “unqualified access to all sites throughout the country,” Pompeo said, alluding to military sites that were off-limits under the 2015 deal except under specific circumstances.
To that end, he also said Iran must declare all previous efforts to build a nuclear weapon, reopening an issue that the U.N.’s International Atomic Energy Agency has already deemed a closed matter.
Pompeo also demanded that Iran cease from a range of activities throughout the Middle East that have long drawn the ire of the U.S. and its allies. He said Iran must end support for Shiite Houthi rebels in Yemen, “withdraw all forces” from Syria, halt support for its ally Hezbollah and stop threatening Israel.
Iran must also “release all U.S. citizens” missing in Iran or being held on “spurious charges,” he said.
At the same time, Pompeo offered Iran a series of dramatic potential U.S. concessions if it agrees to make “major changes.” Under a new agreement, the U.S. would be willing to lift all sanctions, restore full diplomatic and commercial ties with Iran, and even support the modernization of its economy, Pompeo said.
It is generally considered that Iran will not agree to these demands.
Ahead of the Friday meeting, Khamenei set guidelines Wednesday for the talks that Eurasia Group analyst Henry Rome described as “maximalist.” The demands, translated by Rome on Twitter, include:
1. Europeans must bring resolution to [the United Nations Security Council] protesting U.S. violation of UNSCR 2231 [the UN resolution endorsing the Iran nuclear deal].
2. Iran’s missiles and regional presence absolutely may not be discussed with European leaders.
3. Europeans [must] clearly oppose all American sanctions against Iran.
4. If the Americans try to interfere with Iran’s oil sales, the Europeans must guarantee the purchase of oil from Iran.
5. Europe must guarantee Iranian banking connections.
Under current circumstances, it seems more likely that Europe will comply with Iran’s demands for maintenance of JCPOA than that Iran will comply with USA’s demands.
The biggest area of conflict will be with Iranian requirements for Europe to guarantee access for Iran banks, and to guarantee purchases of oil. If Europe so guarantee’s their companies will be at risk of hard sanctions from the USA. Some European companies will likely make their own decisions that doing business with Iran is not worth the risk of USA sanction, and it is not clear what Europe will do to enforce any guarantee made to Iran again such companies.